On Tuesday July 22 2025, the Irish government announced a record €212 – 275 billion public sector investment from 2026-2035 through the revised National Development Plan (NDP). To be honest, this number varies greatly depending on the source. However, some numbers are common across all sources.
- €102 – 112 billion will be allocated for public services up to 2030 and at least a further €100bn from 2030 to 2035.
This is the largest ever capital investment plan in the history of the Irish State and this ambitious infrastructure package includes spending on transport, climate action, health, and education and most importantly, housing.
With over half of the funding (€54.5 billion) coming from known sources, the government is keen to frame this as a long-term strategic investment.
But in our current context of a really bad housing crisis, rising homelessness, unaffordable rents, and low social housing targets, the real question remains: will this revised NDP finally help stabilise the housing crisis in Ireland?
Sources of Funding for Ireland’s National Development Plan (2025-2030).
1. Known Sources (€55bn)
| Source | Approximate Amount | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| Sale of AIB shares | ~€305m | Infrastructure & public investment |
| Apple tax back | ~€14bn | Housing, energy, transport, water |
| Budget surpluses & state funds (Mostly from tech & pharma companies) | ~€39–40bn | Long-term capital spending |
| Total Known Sources of Funds | ~€55bn (almost 50%) |
1. SALE OF AIB SHARES
The Irish Government sold its final ~2 % stake in AIB in June 2025 for approximately €305 million, and the proceeds from these sales will most likely be reinvested in critical infrastructure sectors.
2. APPLE TAX BACK
In 2024, nearly €14 billion in back taxes owed by Apple were transferred to the Irish exchequer following a European Commission decision and court appeals. This windfall constitutes over 10% of the newly announced capital funding envelope.
3. OTHER STATE FUNDS & SURPLUSES.
- Additional contributions include accumulated budget surpluses (~€39.6 billion since 2022) generated from booming corporate tax revenues and general public finances.
- Funds from the Infrastructure, Climate & Nature Fund and other mechanisms are also being deployed towards capital expenditure.
2. Likely Sources of the Remaining €52bn – €57bn.
| Source | Explanation |
|---|---|
| EU Co-Funding (incl. RRF & Cohesion Funds) | – Ireland is eligible for EU structural funds and Recovery & Resilience Facility (RRF) support, especially for green and digital infrastructure. – These often co-finance large capital projects. |
| Borrowing / Sovereign Bonds | – Despite past debt concerns, Ireland’s debt-to-GDP ratio is relatively low. – The NTMA (National Treasury Management Agency) can raise capital through long-term bonds at still-manageable rates. |
| Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) | Used in areas like roads, housing, hospitals. Likely to fund infrastructure where the state partners with private developers or operators. |
| NAMA Profits or Asset Disposal | NAMA continues to wind down its portfolio. Future asset sales could contribute small amounts. |
| Dividends from Semi-State Companies | Companies like ESB, Bord Gáis, and Irish Water sometimes remit dividends to the Exchequer, especially when profitable. |
| Reprioritised Departmental Budgets | Some funds may be redirected from less urgent programmes or departments with surpluses or underspend. (Maybe) |
What’s Been Promised for Housing?
According to the updated plans:
€36 billion has been allocated for housing (including water).
- This will be used to support local authorities, Approved Housing Bodies (AHBs), and the Land Development Agency (LDA) in building social and affordable homes.
- The government still maintains its target of 50,000 new-build homes per year up to 2030. 🙄🙄
If you have been reading any of my opinion pieces up to this point, you know that my reaction is the same – I’ll believe it when I see it. Also, the details of the remaining sources of funding are unclear and so they are definitely not guaranteed. Not to mention, the overall plans for infrastructure and housing development seem pretty vague in my opinion. See more details HERE.
For the government to continue to promise 50,000 homes every year despite averaging 30,000 is pretty tone-deaf. Forgive my criticism (as an immigrant), but this is making a fool out of both Irish citizens and its residents.
But then again, politicians will continue to do what they do best. Regardless, I will not hold my breath.
While these promises to increase investment in public services are welcome, I am concerned that traditional construction methods and the slow pace of planning approvals will continue to slow down housing delivery.
Can Modular Construction Help?
I will continue to say this, if the government is truly serious about hitting its targets, now is the time to embrace Modern Methods of Construction (MMC), especially modular construction as a major part of its social housing apartment delivery.
Here’s why:
| Benefit of Modular/MMC | Impact on Housing Targets |
|---|---|
| Faster Build Times | Homes can be completed in months, not years. |
| Cost Predictability | Prefab manufacturing allows for budgets that are easier to control. |
| Less Weather Disruption | Off-site builds are not delayed by rain/winter. |
| Quality & Sustainability | Better insulation and reduced waste. |
| Workforce Efficiency | Requires fewer on-site tradespeople. |
Even a small change towards modular construction could help struggling councils like Dublin City and Donegal which have fallen well below targets, to increase their social housing delivery quickly.
Conclusion.
With the announcement of these NDP revisions, Ireland is entering a once-in-a-generation phase of infrastructure spending. I strongly believe that the announcement to invest €112 billion in 5 years should be an opportunity to reimagine how we build social housing, not just how much we spend on it.
Throwing money at housing will NOT fix the issue of low supply.
To truly make an impact:
- Local authorities must be empowered and supported to adopt MMC and modular construction.
- Planning delays must be addressed head-on and reduced.
- Vital supporting infrastructure such as Uisce Eireann must receive vital funding to fix leakages and ease access to building sites.
- And importantly, accountability structures such as social housing league tables must be matched with practical funding from the state.
Only then can the numbers mean something more than PR headlines. With smart investment and real reform, modular construction can be part of the social housing solution, not a missed opportunity.
