In a recent article in the Irish Times, it reported that only the top 20% of Irish earners can now afford to rent a newly built apartment, while only the top 40% can afford to buy one. This is according to recent 2025 findings from the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI). Irish Times
The report can be viewed HERE.
This is not a temporary affordability problem. It is clearly a structural one, and without large-scale, long-term State intervention, rents will continue to rise indefinitely, supply will remain tight, and more households will be locked out of secure housing.
This post breaks down in simple terms:
- Why the private market can no longer deliver affordable rental homes
- Why new apartments are effectively priced for high earners only
- Why the State must intervene at scale
- What that intervention could look like
- What the €14 billion Apple windfall could achieve if used strategically
Summary of Main Points from the Article
- According to the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI), only the top 20% of earners in Ireland can afford rents on a new apartment in 2025. (This heavily implies that a broader base could afford the same apartment 10 years ago).
- Only the top 40% of earners can afford to buy a 2-bed apartment.
- The typical sale price for a new 2-bed apartment is between €480,000 (suburban, medium-rise) and €650,000 (urban development). (Median prices in 2015 were around €350,000 in Dublin and lower outside of Dublin.)
- To buy a 2-bed apartment, a first-time buyer couple would need a combined income between €108,000 and €146,000, assuming a 4:1 loan-to-income ratio.
- The total development cost to build 2-bed apartments in medium-rise urban developments has increased by 4%–6% over the past 5 years.
- In suburban schemes (often the cheaper option), costs have risen even more sharply, from about €411,000 to €541,000 on average, a 32% increase.
- Due to design and standardisation improvements, the reported cost per square metre now lies in a lower range of €2,600 to €3,150, compared to a wider spread in previous years.
Implications for Renters and Buyers in Ireland
The above figures clearly show that new-build apartments, traditionally seen as part of Ireland’s supply solution, are simply not affordable for the majority of people. Even where rents are capped for existing tenants, new rental listings quickly reset to market levels, which keeps costs high.
- Because only 20% of earners can afford even to rent a new apartment, the majority of households are effectively locked out of private new-build apartments.
- The high purchase prices (well above €480,000) also mean that in the future, more and more new homes will not be eligible for support schemes like the First-Home schemes. View the Price Ceilings HERE.
- The affordability gap suggests that while new-build apartments are increasing supply, they aren’t delivering accessible housing.
- For lower- and middle-income earners, the report shows how the “average” new apartment is well beyond reach, pushing many to remain renters indefinitely and rely on older, more expensive-to-run housing.
- 14.8% of households are unable to afford two or more of a list of basic needs. That number will definitely increase.
- Rents will keep rising indefinitely, unless Government acts directly, intentionally and hard.
Why the Private Market Cannot be Relied Upon to Fix This Rent Crisis Alone.
1. High Construction Costs
- Total development cost for a 2-bed in urban schemes has risen by 4–6% in the last 5 years. (This heavily implies that the percentage rise pre-2020 was lower, but I was unable to find the exact range).
- In suburban schemes, total costs rose from about €411,000 to €541,000 in the last 5 years alone. This is an insane 32% increase in costs!
This demonstrates a clear mismatch between
- What it costs to produce a new apartment, and
- What most Irish incomes can sustain in rent or mortgage repayments.
Markets do not “fix” this on their own. At these cost levels, the rational outcome for private developers is – Build Expensive, Rent Expensive, or Don’t Build.
2. Developers Must Charge High Rents Just to Break Even.
With current conditions:
- High Construction Costs (materials, labour, finance, etc).
- High Land values, especially in urban locations.
- Planning Delays that stretch timelines and increase risk.
- Rents and Sale Prices that must stay high just to make schemes viable.
Given those constraints, private developers logically gravitate towards:
- High-rent Build-to-Rent schemes
- Upper-middle to high-end buyers
- Prime city locations
This also means that most small and medium rural developers cannot compete at all. We need them to be able to deliver more social housing across Ireland!
What developers cannot do at scale and without subsidy, is deliver thousands of apartments that are affordable to median earners and still make the numbers work.
If you leave this system alone, you don’t get affordable homes. You just get more supply for high earners and continued scarcity for everyone else.
PS. From 2026-2030, the VAT rate for the construction of new apartments (sold as completed units) will drop from 13.5% to 9% . However, I can almost guarantee that this saving will not be passed down to the buyer.
3. Small Landlords Are Leaving the Market at an Alarming Rate
Thousands of private landlords have left the market in recent years, reducing rental supply and increasing competition for what remains. My Little Home.
- Eviction notices rose by 35% in the Q3 of 2025 (compared to same time in 2024).
- 5,405 tenants were told to leave, mostly by small landlords who are selling or transferring the property to family members.
- New rules starting in March 2026 will require 6-year minimum leases, allow very few reasons to end a tenancy, and limit rent increases to 2% or inflation.
- Small landlords say the new rules are too harsh and make renting far “less attractive”
When supply falls and demand rises, rents climb. No amount of regulation can reverse that basic equation.
Ireland’s Unique Opportunity – €14 billion Apple Back-Tax windfall
Against all the above, Ireland has a unique opportunity that no other country has in the EU.
- The €14 billion Apple back-tax windfall received in full by the Irish government in July 2025. (The BBC).
- Corporate tax revenues have increased significantly the last decade, contributing to budget surpluses every year since 2022.
- The revised National Development Plan (NDP) for 2026–2030 now includes €112 billion in infrastructure spending, up roughly 23–30%, explicitly supported by the Apple windfall and other one-off receipts. Reuters.
Officially, the Government has:
- Committed to using the Apple funds to bolster the NDP and “core infrastructure” over the next couple of years (energy, water, transport, housing, etc.).
- Also insisted that the windfall should not be used for day-to-day current spending. The Irish Times
All of that is fine and good. But it leaves a gap:
There is no transparent, allocated , large-scale social housing programme clearly and explicitly tied to this once-off €14bn opportunity.
During the 2024 election campaigns, Fine Gael pledged to spend €10bn of Apple money on housing. I have not forgotten. (Irish Independent)
Why National Direct Government Intervention Is Absolutely Necessary.
We can all agree that a lot of money is required by the government in order to intervene convincingly. Most resets as we know, usually require the tax payer to bear the cost, or for the state to borrow more money from institutional lenders.
However, this is not the case with the 14 billion received from Apple Inc.
All previous and future budget surpluses can be allocated to the NDP, I am absolutely fine with that. However, the Apple money does not need to be sitting idle, during one of Ireland’s largest crises.
Will the Apple money end the Housing Crisis? No it won’t.
But with clear determiniation and political willpower, this money can be mobilised immediately to put a massive dent in this housing/rent crisis. Simply starting can lead to a chain of events that will lead to the provision of more social housing and stabilise rent prices for decades to come.
With the private market unable to deliver affordable homes, and with demand continuing to grow, the Government is the only actor capable of changing the system at scale.
Here’s why:
1. Only the Government Can Build Social Homes at Scale & Stabilise Prices Without Needing High Rents.
Private developers need profit to operate. The State does not.
More State-built housing can offer:
- More cost-rental units
- More social housing
- More Affordable purchase homes
- Mixed-income schemes
All without requiring market-level rents to fund construction.
2. The State Has a Unique 14Billion Opportunity
I will keep saying this until something is done about it right now. Ireland is sitting on:
- A €14 billion Apple tax windfall
This is an extraordinary financial position to be in. Few countries dealing with major housing crises have this level of extra financial strength.
3. Housing Is a Long-Term Capital Asset
Investment today pays dividends for the government for decades.
A single cost-rental apartment delivers:
- Lower lifetime rent for tenants
- Long-term rental income for the State
- Reduced Housing Assistance Payment (HAP) spending
- A permanent public asset
This is exactly the kind of investment a windfall should fund.
What Direct Government Intervention Using the 14 Billion Apple Money Could Look Like.
1. Empowering Small & Medium Builders to Deliver Social Housing
Small and medium builders once delivered the majority of Ireland’s new homes, but today many are locked out of the market due to high finance costs, delayed planning approvals, and development risk that only large developers can absorb.
I have discussed their issues in detail HERE.
If the State wants to rapidly increase affordable and social housing output, unlocking SME capacity is essential because:
- SMEs make up over 90% of construction firms in Ireland.
- They can build quickly and efficiently on small and medium sites.
- They are more willing to adopt Modular and Modern Methods of Construction (MMC) when supported.
Yet despite soaring national housing demand, many SME builders cannot access:
- Development loans from banks at affordable rates
- Predictable pipelines of public projects
- Quicker planning approval
- Quick access to electricity & water connections even after approvals (especially in rural areas)
- State Schemes like Project Tosaigh and Croí Cónaithe, but for SMEs only.
The result is simple – hundreds of skilled builders are under-utilised, and skilled labour is being poached by larger developers or worse – emigration.
What the State Can Consider with Some of that Apple Money for SMEs.
A targeted State intervention programme could:
- Provide low-interest development loans for SME-led social and affordable housing & apartments
- Use the Apple windfall to establish a National Housing Accelerator Fund that guarantees payment for completed social housing units
- Support small and medium firms already using Modular & MMC methods of construction
And plenty more!
To read more on this particular topic, go HERE.
2. Empower the Land Development Agency
- Convert the Land Development Agency or launch a National Housing Reconstruction Agency to acquire and refurbish low-impact vacant homes, and create a social housing stock that is fully state-owned. Any further income from that is to be used in the provision of more social homes and to reduce dependence on private investment.
- Fund a state-owned modular or MMC social housing programme that makes use of offsite construction to deliver homes within months, and not years.
Rather than waiting for ideal conditions, the State should act as though housing is the emergency it is; because it is.
3. Invest in Planning Capacity & Infrastructure
Unfortunately, Ireland’s planning system appears to be severly understaffed. And the delays in planning approvals and reviews are are not good in a housing crisis.
Investement is clearly needed in:
- Local council staffing
- Uisce Eireann’s Leakage Reduction Programme (Millions of litres of treated water is lost each day due to aging pipes. This could be used in construction).
- Design a faster Appeals Resolution process.
Planning must serve the public interest, not paralyse it.
4. Rebuild the Construction Workforce
To build 60,000 homes annually, Ireland would need an additional 50,000 construction workers to hit those targets. Most skilled Irish construtcion workers who emigrated have established stable lives in Australia, Canada, the UAE, etc; where wages are higher, conditions are better, and the sun shines more than once a week.
Expecting them to return to a country with higher taxes, lower pay and astronomical housing costs is wishful thinking.
The only viable solution is a structured migrant labour strategy and how to house this labour. Whether it likes it or not, Ireland needs tens of thousands of skilled workers from Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We’re talking electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, engineers, planners and more.
Ireland needs to:
- Consider launching a temporary national migrant construction visa for skilled trades from these countries.
- Consider a plan to erect temporary modular sites to house these workers.
- Consider temporary housing and income tax incentives for both local and migrant construction workers who relocate.
- Reinvest heavily in vocational education for Irish residents, and expand apprenticeships linked directly to active housing projects.
This is not about charity or ideology; it is about capacity.
Without workers, all targets are fiction.
5. Bring Back Direct State Construction.
The private sector cannot be relied upon to solve a crisis it can profit from. Simple.
Ireland needs to restore the State’s role as a builder, not merely a funder.
- Establish a form of National Housing Works Authority under the Department of Housing to directly manage land, tenders, and builds. Alternatively, it can redefine the role of the Land Development Agency as a builder.
- Enable local councils to hire builders and project managers directly rather than subcontract through AHBs.
- Use state-owned land for cost-rental and social housing, built and managed publicly, with permanent affordability.
This is how Austria, Denmark, and Finland maintain stability. They do not rely on speculative private development, but by ensuring the State always has a stake in supply.
Once built, government owned cost-rental schemes finance themselves through rents collected.
Final Thoughts
The above are just some suggestions after months of going through housing data. I am not an economist or construction guru, so imagine what a coalition of these experts can come up with!
The SCSI data is a warning – Ireland’s rental market is no longer functioning for most households, and rent prices will keep rising indefinitely unless government acts intentionally and fast.
When new apartments are only available to the top 20%, market solutions alone cannot bridge the gap. Ireland has the financial resources, the need, and the opportunity to take decisive action.
The government has tried every half-measure you could think of by now. So direct, large-scale state intervention at this point is not just a radical idea, but a logical response to:
- Failed RPZ policies & over-dependence on the private sector
- Rising build costs
- Declining rental supply
- Increasing homelessness in Ireland
If Ireland uses its €14 billion windfall strategically, intentionally and soon, it could reshape the rental system for generations and prevent the crisis from becoming permanent.
