Recent headlines from the Irish Times have pointed to a sharp increase in housing starts in Ireland, with Government figures showing that housing commencements doubled towards the end of 2025 (Irish Times)
On the surface, this sounds a lot like progress.
- However, a closer look reveals that housing starts doubled only in December 2025, when compared to November 2025, not year on year.
- For context, 3,065 housing starts were recorded in December 2025 as opposed to 1,533 recorded in November 2025
- This ‘spike‘ at the end of the 2025 has been credited to Government reforms such as VAT cuts on new-build apartments, rent controls and changing apartment design standards to legally allow for much smaller apartments.
- Overall, 16,412 new home starts were recorded for all of 2025 (73% less than the 60,243 registered home starts recorded for all of 2024).
Given that many readers are likely to look only at headlines (I’m guilty too), this is why it is very important to distinguish between housing starts and housing delivery, and why relying on commencements stats alone can exaggerate government efforts to fixing this housing crisis.
While the State is trying various ways to try to resolve this crisis, I truly believe that government officials need to stop telling people they will deliver 300,000 houses by 2030.
This is important, so that false hope is not continuously offered to renters, buyers, and families still waiting for a home.
Key Takeaways
| Issue | What It Really Means | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Housing starts ≠ homes delivered | Starts usually refer to commencement notices, not completed homes | Completions are what actually reduce housing pressure |
| Commencements don’t guarantee builds | Projects can stall due to funding, labour, or other issues | Starts alone can overstate real progress |
| 300,000 homes by 2030 is unlikely | Current planning & delivery systems lack the scale and certainty needed | Targets cannot be hit without bold structural reform |
| Capacity Issues | Planning, labour, utilities and judicial reviews still slow delivery | Less actual houses built |
| Direct State building required | Public building bypasses private risks | Essential for social and affordable housing |
| Apple tax fund is a rare opportunity | Can fund planners, infrastructure, and direct builds | One-off chance to structurally reset delivery |
What Do “Housing Starts” Actually Mean?
In Ireland, a housing start usually refers to the lodgement of a commencement notice. This is a legal requirement that signals a developer’s intention to start building.
It is very important to know that this does not guarantee that:
- Full construction has begun
- Financing (loans) has been fully secured
- Labour and materials are available
- The project will proceed without interruption
- Homes will be completed within a predictable timeframe
In many cases, commencements involve early-stage works such as fencing, site clearance, or ground preparation. These are meaningful steps, but they are still several stages removed from homes being completed or lived in.
At the start of 2025, the Government reported that construction had started on 60,243 registered homes in 2024 (an impressive 84% increase over 2023). By the end of 2024, only 30,300 (50%) were completed.
Starts vs Completions – Why I Believe the Difference Matters
- Both are simply not the same.
From a housing perspective, only completions actually reduce pressure in the system. They are the point at which people can move in, rents ease, and demand is absorbed.
Ireland has repeatedly experienced situations where:
- Starts increased sharply (2024)
- Projects slowed or stopped completely due to financing, judicial reviews, or high costs
- Completion numbers lagged far behind expectations
For obvious reasons, a government will emphasise starts because they are:
- Forward-looking, and
- Less politically damaging than slower completion figures
2. Ireland’s housing system has a lot of well-documented issues:
- Shortages of planners, inspectors, builders, and engineers
- Issues with water, wastewater and electricity infrastructure
- Heavy reliance on the private-sector
- Prolonged exposure to judicial reviews
Even if commencements increase, these constraints determine whether starts can actually convert into finished homes.
The 300,000 Homes by 2030 Target – Reality Check
In order to hit the target of 300,000 homes by 2030, Ireland needs to build 60,000 homes each year.
For each of the last 4 years, Ireland has barely been able to pass the 33,000 homes per year mark despite various reforms. Yet government officials still choose to spout the nonsense of 300,000 homes by 2030 instead of telling the truth.
- They know very well that this is not possible unless government becomes involved in building homes directly.
To meet this target, Ireland would need:
- Rapid scaling of public-sector planning and public housing delivery
- Minimal slippage due to planning delays, judicial reviews or infrastructure issues
- Stable financing conditions for builders
- Reduce over-reliance on the private sector
At present, Ireland has not demonstrated that it can consistently convert planning approvals into completed homes at this scale.
This does not mean the target is impossible. But it does mean that the current delivery mechanisms CANNOT achieve it alone, and the government should stop lying about it.
Why Direct State Building is Important
The MAIN reason why government needs to build new social and affordable homes directly is simple – Control.
When the State:
- Owns the land
- Funds building directly
- Employs or commissions delivery teams
- Removes delays in planning,
it can deliver homes regardless of short-term market conditions.
This is where I continue to argue why Government should allocate the €14 billion Apple tax fund specifically for solving the housing crisis.
The €14bn Apple tax windfall is uniquely suited to housing intervention because it is a once-off, capital-focused and large enough amount that can reshape both the planning and housing system in Ireland, and help deal with structural failure.
A lot could potentially change if the State (with a little political willpower) allocates the Apple Fund strictly to fix the housing crisis:
- Empower local councils to buy, restore and own easily-repairable vacant & derelict buildings (there are currently 80,000+ vacant homes in Ireland)
- Improve Uisce Eireann’s infrastructure by contributing to its Leakage Programme.
- Introduce loan schemes that activate the real sleeping giants, i,e small & medium builders.
- Improve the planning system by reducing judicial reviews and making sure that local councils are properly staffed.
- Reduce reliance on the private rental market to stabilise house and rent prices nationwide
And so much more!!
Without that level of intervention, housing supply remains exposed to delays beyond Government control.
If you would like to see my other mentions on how Ireland can mobilise the Apple Tax fund to fix the crisis, please go HERE.
Final Words
Rising housing starts are not meaningless, and they may signal improving confidence. But readers should never confuse starts with possible delivery.
Until the State:
- Focuses more on completions than commencements
- Mobilises the Apple Fund right now to solve the housing crisis
- Uses State resources to build directly at scale
…the housing crisis will remain structurally unresolved.
