Key Takeaways
| Issue | Current Situation (2025) | What Needs to Happen Now |
|---|---|---|
| Rental Supply | Fewer than 2,000 homes available nationwide – a 3-year low | Emergency state-led new builds |
| Average Rent | €2,080 nationwide €2,583 Dublin | Rent relief & public housing to restore affordability |
| Government Target | 300,000 homes by 2031 (quietly moved from 2030) | Structural reform |
| APPLE TAX WINDFALL | €14 billion available since mid-2025 | Use ALL of it specifically for social housing-related supply & water supply |
| Social Housing Goal | 12,000 units per year | At least 25–30 k to reduce waiting lists and rents |
| SME Builder Access | Difficult due to procurement issues & finance | Small-lot public tenders + state-backed working capital |
| Labour Shortages | Tight domestic market + growing anti-immigrant sentiment | Targeted permits and apprenticeships in construction |
| Planning & Utilities | Multi-year delays (Uisce Éireann, ABP, courts) | Fast-track consents & staffing surge |
| Political Tone | Optimism > Execution. No surprise there. | Independent oversight & monthly delivery dashboards |
Main Summaries of the Source Reports
A. Irish Times (12 Nov 2025) – Rental crisis to intensify as ‘starved of supply’ housing stock dips below 2,000′.
Read FULL article HERE.
- Only 1,901 homes available to rent across Ireland in Nov 2025 – less than half the 2015–2019 average at 44%.
- Average two-bed rent is €2,080 nationwide; approx. €2,583 in Dublin.
- Rents outside Dublin rising > 10 % year-on-year; National average up 33 % since COVID and 67 % above Celtic-Tiger peak.
- Economist Ronan Lyons – market “starved of supply.”
B. RTÉ (12 Nov 2025) – Housing plan seeks to deliver 300,000 homes over six years.
Read Full article HERE.
- The Government’s long-awaited Housing Plan titled ‘Delivering Homes, Building Communities’ is heading to Cabinet for approval today.
- Includes €2.5 bn extra for the Land Development Agency (LDA) to deliver 14k homes by 2029 – and raising its budget to €8.75 bn.
- Last year, the Government’s social housing delivery fell short of its 12,930 goal – by more than 2,300 homes
- Promises compulsory purchase order use for dereliction, 20k vacant units back in use, and €100 m for families in emergency accommodation.
- Opposition leaders Eoin Ó Broin and Rory Hearne call it timid: “no radical transformation.”
A Record Crisis Met with Record Political Timidity.
So, here we have The Irish Times warning us of the lowest rental stock in years; and an RTE Cabinet press conference promising the “most unprecedented investment in housing ever.”
Both cannot be true at the same time.
If we assume that Ireland has already been pouring historic funds into housing, why are the consequences still historic shortages?
Let us peel back 5 relevant layers to examine the most glaring issues.
1. The €14 Billion Question – Why Is the Apple Tax Windfall Still Idle?
When the European Commission ordered Apple to repay back taxes, Ireland was forced to hold €14 billion in escrow. By mid-2025 the money was transferred to the Irish Exchequer.
This is ‘free’ money that is not from the taxpayer or any other public or private lender – no repayment, no interest, no bond obligations – yet not a cent has been allocated specifically for the urgent social issues that plagues Irish residents today. (Social housing delivery, anyone??) .
This money is the heartbeat to solving this housing crisis – and it needs to be mobilised urgently. The Government literally has nothing to lose here.
All of that money now remains locked in the National Development Plan (NDP); a well-intentioned but unclear plan that focuses on long-term, less urgent infrastructure projects. To me, this means little without a public ledger showing what projects benefit and how much.
So right now, this Apple money is being used only as a political excuse for Ireland to continue to depend on private investment, and not as an urgent, practical solution to the housing crisis.
Practical Ideas/Examples of What Could be Done for Social Housing Delivery TODAY with €14 Billion.
- Allocate €2bn specifically to Uisce Éireann’s Leakage Reduction Programme. (As of 2022, 37 % or 600million litres of treated water is lost daily due to ageing mains. This water loss could be very vital for construction purposes).
- Allocate €2bn to social-housing-specific “SME Lots” of 20–50 homes each, built within 24 months. This will allow small and medium Irish builders to easily access loans that most banks won’t give them, and help deliver urgent social housing.
- Allocate €5bn to the Land Development Agency to specifically acquire as many affordable & least derelict homes as possible among the 80,000+ vacant homes in Ireland, renovate them, keep them as public social housing stock and provide them at cost to Irish residents. Each local council will control this stock, and any returns will be reinvested into the provision of more social homes.
- Invest €1bn in modular construction frameworks and techniques for social housing. Incentivise existing Irish builders in the industry to prove that quality homes can really be built in less than 4 months.
- Allocate €250m to hire planners, builders and engineers across the State.
- Reserve €400m for labour incentives, apprenticeships and willpower needed to improve the current planning system.
- Reserve €100m for an oversight committee of public servants that will ensure that this money is used as intended.
These are just ideas I’m spitballing as a concerned observer!
And yet, that still leaves €3.25bn to cover any contingencies or fund new social housing delivery ideas.
With proper oversight and clear political will, this €10.5bn Apple-funded money could help add anywhere between 20,000 – 50,000 units within two years, and put a serious dent in this housing crisis!
2. Goalpost Shifting – 300,000 Home-Goal Moved from 2030 to 2031.
When the National Housing Plan was launched, it promised to build 300,000 homes by 2030. If I’m correct, then it appears that the finish line has been quietly pushed forward to 2031. No press release has announced the change, no minister explained the rationale. It simply appeared in the RTE press release as a subtle bureaucratic sleight of hand.
I cannot confirm if this is for certain, but it does appear strange.
If this is true, then the political calculation is pretty obvious – shifting deadlines makes it harder to be accused of failure. But housing delivery is not a budget spreadsheet; it’s the difference between Irish families having a roof or having to look for emergency accommodation. Quietly extending these timelines without any structural change will only prolong the pain.
Even if the Government magically hits 30,000 completions in 2025, it still falls short of the required 50–60k yearly units promised in the Housing for All Strategy to stabilise rents and reduce homelessness. To claim otherwise is simply dishonest and takes the Irish public for fools.
3. Claiming that the Apple €14bn would ‘Overheat’ the economy is False & Frankly Irrelevant.
The main excuse policymakers have provided for not using the Apple Fund immediately is that it risks overheating the Irish economy. Read more HERE.
With over €23bn in tax surpluses over the last 3 years, Ireland is in a unique position to execute some of its long-term National Development Plan (NDP) goals. However, the funding for those plans should exclude the Apple 14bn, as this money was never included in the initial plan – and now it is!
The housing crisis is an emergency for crying out loud!
This money has nothing to do with deficit spending or risky borrowing. It’s a unique, once-in-a-generation endowment that could change the trajectory of Irish housing, water, and infrastructure for decades to come. Other European nations facing comparable crises, i.e, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, typically use state-backed construction agencies and direct capital spending to stabilise supply.
Ireland’s choice to hold back is not prudence. This is straight-up paralysis.
An ambitious short-term (2-5years), yet visible investment in vital public housing would not overheat the economy. It would rebalance it by shifting labour and materials away from speculative projects into essential ones.
4. Other Radical Tools Hiding in Plain Sight
The political class often dismisses “radical” ideas as unrealistic. But the truly radical move now would be competence. Ireland already has the legal and financial instruments it needs; they are simply not being used.
A. 0-5% VAT for Social & Affordable Builds.
EU law limits VAT flexibility, but nothing prevents Ireland from applying a super-reduced rate or zero-rating for labour and materials used in certified affordable or social housing schemes.
- A time-bound 0% VAT window for social housing projects (e.g, 36 months) for such projects could lower build costs by up to 10%. This could directly improve house prices without violating EU directives. It simply requires political will and administrative agility.
B. Activate the Real Sleeping Giants – Small & Medium Builders.
Small and medium builders once formed the backbone of Ireland’s housing output. Today, they are held back by red tape, limited access to loans, and oversized procurement frameworks that mostly benefit large developers.
Examples of these procurement limitations include:
- National Public Procurement Frameworks (Office of Government Procurement – OGP) – Entry thresholds are high, as firms must show multi-million-euro turnover and multiple large reference projects. So only big developers can qualify.
- Land Development Agency (LDA) and Large Public-Private Partnership (PPP) Frameworks – The LDA’s tender lots often exceed €50–100 million in contract value. SME’s cannot match that.
- Local Authority Housing Delivery Frameworks (Design & Build and Developer-Led) – Many councils use “Design & Build” bundles (e.g., 100–300 units per site). Bundling multiple sites into one tender excludes smaller firms that could have built one or two of them individually. This slows down delivery.
- Framework Qualification Criteria (Bonding and Insurance Requirements) – Even small public contracts often ask for performance bonds (10 %), public liability of €6.5 million, and employers’ liability of €13 million. This is a huge ask for 20–40 unit projects; these insurance costs alone can cost SMEs tens of thousands annually.
- Centralised eTenders System Complexity – The eTenders portal itself is structured for large-scale, repeat public contractors. The lengthy pre-qualification, complex document uploads, and high admin costs discourage smaller firms.
To fix this, the Government could:
- Divide public housing projects into 10–50 unit “micro-lots”, enabling SMEs to tender competitively.
- Establish a State-backed mobilisation fund using Apple capital to provide low-interest bridging loans for start-up costs.
- Publish pre-approved modular designs (NZEB standard) that relevant SMEs can replicate quickly under planning exemptions.
This approach could unleash thousands of tradesmen, contractors, and local firms currently sidelined by bureaucracy.
C. Short Term Emergency Visa Programmes for Foreign Construction Workers.
No social housing plan will work without hands to build it.
The workforce gap is staggering right now; Ireland needs at least 40,000 extra construction workers to provide the homes it so desperately needs. However, given the current negative sentiment toward immigration, politicians are afraid to lose points by even mentioning it.
But Ireland cannot ignore this, as immigration is part of the solution.
Part of the €3.25bn remainder we discussed above could be used to fund:
- Targeted visa programmes for both unskilled and skilled trades from across the world, fast-tracked through bilateral agreements.
- Emergency temporary modular accommodation to house incoming talent. (Modular because it can be easily disassembled for other use once its goal has been achieved).
- Paid apprenticeships attached to public contracts
- Anti-racist communication that emphasises the importance of migrant labour to resolving this crisis.
Ireland also has thousands of refugees who want nothing but dignity in work, but are forced to rely on state resources. Allow them to learn a trade, contribute to building the nation, earn a living wage and pay taxes. This is a much better use of state resources than limiting their work opportunities at the perceived expense of the Irish taxpayer.
This would help to reduce the rising, racist far-right narratives that are common amongst nationalist groups across Ireland. If Ireland refuses to import the relevant labour it needs, every other reform will collapse.
Also, the ‘Build Back Home’ Campaign is a half-assed measure that will not work. It makes the current government look like they’re trying, but they’re really not.
5. 12,000 Social Homes a Year is Not Enough Right Now.
In practical terms, this promise of 12,000 annual social homes feels like a band-aid rather than a solution.
Recorded homelessness now exceeds 16,000, including 5,000 children. Ireland would need 25–30 k public and affordable units per year for the next decade just to close the gap.
Every year that this coalition government remains inactive, it adds another generation of renters locked out of ownership, another winter of families homeless, and another record broken for all the wrong reasons.
If I’ve demonstrated anything thus far, it is that Ireland does not need any grand new strategies or genius.
It simply needs the political courage needed to revamp the current planning system and tackle the above issues.
Introduce Planning Reform That Actually Cuts Time
Every developer and council planner knows that the system is collapsing under its own paperwork.
A single application can touch a dozen agencies and take up to 7 years for complex cases. Some fix ideas could include:
- Specialised Housing Courts with judges trained in planning law to handle judicial reviews within six months.
- Statutory “deemed approval” if no decision is issued after 26 weeks for low-impact housing.
- Public dashboards showing average decision times per local authority, creating competitive pressure.
Speed, transparency, and accountability would do more to raise completions than another glossy brochure.
The reasons and ideas listed above are just examples on why I insist that the Apple €14bn is the heartbeat to solving the Irish housing crisis.
Please, Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael, do not let this unique chance pass us by!
Conclusion.
Ireland’s housing failure is not just an economic issue at this point; it is a moral collapse. At its head is a coalition government that knows exactly what it should do, but chooses not to. Instead, it chooses to serve its business interests by allowing families to go homeless, while also watching its young adults continue to lose hope in the future.
As far as the housing crisis is concerned, political radicalism in 2025 is not about ideology; it is about execution. A credible housing plan would treat the Apple windfall as the war chest it was meant to be.
This crisis could be turned within five years if the State choeses to act with intent.
- The money exists.
- The land exists.
- The knowledge exists.
- What’s missing is the nerve.
I am not an expert in construction, public affairs or economics by any means, but surely, I can’t be crazy here. Right?
If so, I would gladly appreciate your insights in the comments below.
Until then, Ireland remains a country with the resources to end its housing crisis; and a Government too timid to use them.
