An analytical editorial on the Department of Finance’s projection that Ireland’s housing crisis could last until 2040. The Irish Times.
Editor’s Note: This piece is longer than my usual posts, and deliberately so. I don’t typically write 3000-word articles, but this time, I was genuinely frustrated at the continued incompetence and political paralysis surrounding Ireland’s housing crisis. I needed to unpack this issue properly in order to inform and to also say what many people may be thinking but few seem willing to address.
If you prefer a shorter read or just want the main takeaways, please do let me know in the comments. Thank you.
Introduction & Context
On November 04, 2025, the Department of Finance’s Future Forty report predicted that Ireland’s housing crisis could persist for another 15 years, with demand not expected to peak until the 2030s and the existing shortage unlikely to be cleared before 2040.
Key points from the article. (The Irish Times.)
- The Department projects that Ireland’s housing demand will keep growing until the early 2030s, and the stock of “pent-up demand” may not be cleared before around 2040.
- Their long-term outlook is published in a report titled Future Forty: A Fiscal and Economic Outlook to 2065, which examines fiscal and economic challenges facing Ireland.
- To hit supply goals, the report assumes that 60,000 new homes & apartments will be built annually by 2030; a significantly large step-up from recent output (30,330 new homes were completed in 2024).
- It also notes that the construction-sector workforce will need to be significantly larger (by an estimated ~50,000 workers) to meet such targets.
- The report links high housing costs to slowed economic growth, labour retention issues and affordability crisis. (From 2015 to 2024; rents went up 78%, prices of goods up by 91%)
When I read the initial 15-year stat, it wasn’t that shocking to me, and yet it was at the same time. I have always maintained that there won’t be a 2008-style housing crash in the next 5 years, despite many speculations online. However, I never really gave much thought about the housing crisis beyond 2030.
When I reflected on the rest of the Irish Times article, I finally realised that 15 more years of a housing crisis in Ireland would definitely be the result of two decades of political hesitation, overreliance on private development, and structural mismanagement.
That projection is more than just a horrifying statistic; it proves that Ireland’s housing dysfunction is more than just a phase. It is now systemic, and will be further included into how the State measures future growth, manages planning, funds infrastructure, and even thinks about future public responsibility.
1. The GDP/GNI Illusion and the Myth of Prosperity.
The Department’s report attempts to link “high housing costs” to “slower economic growth.” On the surface, it may sound like a logical statement. But that is just a well-crafted lie that the department is using to distract from the fact that they failed to properly address leprechaun economics for years!
For over two decades, Ireland has relied on foreign multinationals, particularly in technology and pharmaceuticals, to anchor its GDP per capita. These sectors, attracted by Ireland’s favourable tax regimes, helped make Ireland’s GDP look good on paper, but the prosperity they generated is not reflected in the wages and wealth of the average Irish resident.
Also, while many multinational companies record massive profits here for tax reasons, that profit also counts toward Ireland’s GDP, even though most of the money leaves the country.
For context, the GDP per capita in Ireland for 2024 was $91,514.33 (€79,700). Trading Economics.
As a complementary figure, Ireland’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita for 2024 was €75,181. Trading Economics.
In simple terms, this means that the average income/wealth per Irish resident is 75K a year – in a balanced economy. Unfortunately, GDP & GNI figures only show overall average figures, but don’t show who gets what share. So if a few companies or individuals earn vast sums, it pushes the “average” way up, even if most people earn much less.
So while GDP & GNI seem high, Irish everyday reality is one of rising costs, stagnating lower wages, and a chronic housing shortage.
This disconnect between GDP, GNI and real living conditions has masked the true nature of inequality and disguised how fragile the Irish domestic economy really is.
Over the last 20 years, various Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael governments used inflated GDP & GNI metrics to justify the underfunding of social housing and critical infrastructure under the illusion that the market, held up by private investment, would deliver balance.
But it didn’t.
Instead, inflated demand from high-earning sectors, combined with limited supply and speculative investment, drove property prices to record highs. Meanwhile, the State has continued to congratulate itself on recent budget surpluses while households continue to sink deeper into debt.
2. The 60,000 Homes a Year Fallacy
One of the most striking claims in the Department’s report is that housing supply must reach 60,000 new homes per year by 2030 to meet long-term demand.
On paper, it is a neat, optimistic figure. In reality, it is simply unachievable under current structures. I have talked about this earnestly in previous blog posts.
Ireland has managed roughly 30,000 to 33,000 completions per year in the last 2 years, and that required near-record levels of public spending, subsidised private development, and emergency planning measures. Even if land, materials, and finance were abundant (which they aren’t), the labour and administrative bottlenecks would make doubling output impossible within five years.
The issue here is not simply capacity; it’s design.
Ireland’s housing delivery model is fragmented across overlapping jurisdictions. Here’s what I mean; you have the Department of Housing (including a Minister of State with special responsibility for Local Government and Planning), local councils, approved housing bodies (AHBs), and private developers all operate with competing mandates and timelines.
What this leads to is an uncoordinated housing system with lots of patchwork, unfortunately. You get a lot of announcements, but not a lot of outcomes.
Yes, the “60,000 homes a year” target sounds ambitious, but as many economists have already observed – targets are meaningless without reform. Ireland’s record continues to show a consistent gap between political ambition and real delivery.
Until the State is willing to overhaul how housing is financed, approved, and built, these projections will only have their place in fiction.
3. Planning Paralysis and Infrastructure Decay
No amount of policy intent can overcome the real structural bottlenecks in Ireland’s planning and infrastructure systems.
- Planning approval remains painfully slow and decentralised.
Each local authority interprets guidelines differently, appeals drag on for months, and judicial reviews often stall projects entirely. Both private and public developers face uncertainty at every stage.
Though there have been numerous reports on County Council Meath having developed a planning system that works, there has been no incentive from central government to try to roll out Co. Meath’s blueprint across other councils.
***Update (11/11/2025) – I was wrong about the above point. It appears that the current national e-planning online platform is Co. Meath’s system, which has been rolled out nationally.
2. Ireland’s water infrastructure is still in bad shape, though there has been some improvement since 2019.
In case you didn’t know, Uisce Éireann loses approximately 600 million litres of treated water per day to leaks, which is about 37% of its daily production. Over a year, this amounts to a loss of roughly 220 billion litres of water. Water.ie
Without major upgrades, several regions simply cannot sustain large-scale residential expansion.
4. The €14 Billion Apple Fund That Could Change Everything.
Few things piss me off to no end, than Ireland’s lack of political courage in its treatment of the €14 billion Apple tax windfall it received a few months ago.
That sum can be a turning point in the State’s housing & social emergencies history. It is effectively ‘free money’ won after a long legal battle. I say ‘free‘ in this case because it isn’t money earned from the taxpayer.
And instead of being leveraged to address the most pressing social emergencies in Ireland, that money now sits idle in the Exchequer, and is trapped in political caution and indecision.
In a nation where over 16,000 recorded people are homeless, including thousands of children, the refusal to use this fund for direct public investment in housing borders on moral negligence.
A bold government could have either:
- Purchased and refurbished tens of thousands of vacant or derelict homes. (There are over 80,000 vacant homes in Ireland today GeoDirectory).
- Launched a state-owned rapid-build housing programme that does not depend on foreign or private investment, or
- Created a revolving fund where rental income and resale value would reinvest directly into further social construction.
These are just ideas I’m spitballing as a moderate observer of the pressing issues Ireland faces today. Imagine the solutions that a more observant or relevant state body that has the interests of Irish residents can come up with!
Instead, the State has reserved the fund for the well-intentioned but unclear 2021-2030 National Development Plan (NDP) – whereby the State aims to spend 212 billion in public infrastructure till 2035.
My main issue with this is that the 14billion was never part of the initial National Development Plan! But now, I can guarantee that the state will use this money to cover the gap in NDP funding they thought they could get in 2021. And just like that, this 14billion will slowly fade away from public consciousness. POUF!
The irony is truly staggering in my opinion.
Ireland is one of the only European countries right now that can greatly limit its housing crisis without depending heavily on private investment, but chooses not to.
5. The Labour Shortage Aspect Nobody Wants to Really Talk About.
The Department of Finance’s report vaguely acknowledges that Ireland’s construction workforce must “expand significantly” to meet housing targets. But it sidesteps the uncomfortable reality that Ireland does not only lack the workers it needs, but that its political culture right now is not ready to do what’s required to get them.
To reach 60,000 homes annually, Ireland would need an additional 50,000 to 60,000 construction workers within the next five years. That scale of expansion cannot be achieved by simply retraining or running “Build Back Home” campaigns.
Most of those who emigrated have established stable lives in Australia, Canada, the UAE, etc; where wages are higher, conditions are better, and the sun shines more than once a week. Expecting them to return to a country with higher taxes, lower pay and astronomical housing costs is wishful thinking.
The only viable solution is a structured migrant labour strategy and how to house this labour. Whether it likes it or not, Ireland needs tens of thousands of skilled workers from Eastern Europe, Asia, Africa, and Latin America. We’re talking electricians, carpenters, bricklayers, engineers, planners and more.
Yet right now, the topic of immigration is a political taboo, and is increasingly weaponised by fringe far-right movements that distort legitimate debate into populist fearmongering.
Unfortunately, the government cannot have it both ways.
It cannot promise unprecedented housing output while ignoring the discussion of the very immigration policy that would make it possible.
If Ireland is serious about building 60,000 homes a year, it must:
- Introduce a temporary fast-track work visa scheme for construction professionals.
- Partner with technical colleges to offer paid apprenticeships and on-site training.
- Guarantee accommodation and fair wages for foreign workers.
- Launch a national skills pipeline that integrates migrants and Irish trainees alike.
Otherwise, the “housing plan” will remain exactly that – a plan, never a programme.
6. The Problem With Data Manipulation.
Besides the issues of labour and land zoning, Ireland suffers from a chronic opacity of data that makes accountability difficult.
Politician interviews, official government statistics, and reports often focus on headline figures such as “affordable units”, “units commenced,” “planning permissions approved,” or “completed.” But these numbers hide the real picture:
- Many “commencements” never reach completion due to financing or planning disputes.
- “Affordable” units now exceed €400,000 in practice.
- The government counts social and cost-rental housing built by private developers as part of its delivery records; just to inflate its numbers.
This data manipulation allows politicians to celebrate output that, on the ground, is often delayed, unaffordable, or just plain unsustainable.
What Ireland lacks is a transparent, publicly accessible national housing database that tracks every approved, active, stalled, and completed project in real time. This will allow for more accountability.
But of course, that’ll never happen.😂
7. Dependency on Foreign & Private Investment, Private Development and the Fear of State Building
Ireland’s housing system relies heavily on private & foreign investment, real estate investment trusts and private developers. This is a model that almost guarantees inefficiency and high costs.
Developers generally operate for profit, and not for public service. Their incentives are tied to margins, not volume, so when market conditions tighten, they simply build less. Smaller rural developers might genuinely care about both, but the current system and market conditions make it very difficult for them to compete.
Yet successive governments have continued to outsource social housing delivery to these same actors, and subsidising them through schemes like Help to Buy and First Home Schemes; effectively using public money to sustain private profit.
Meanwhile, direct state construction, once a cornerstone of Irish social housing policy, has been politically abandoned. Local councils rarely build, and approved housing bodies (AHBs) serve as intermediaries rather than engines of delivery.
If Ireland continues to rely on the private market to fix a public crisis, it will continue to get private outcomes; limited supply and inflated prices.
Re-establishing a national state construction arm, capable of acquiring land, building directly, and managing social housing without third-party intermediaries, is not radical. If not, simply restructure the Land Development Agency to achieve this.
It’s simply what most successful European housing systems already do. (i.e, Austria, Germany, Denmark, Finland)
8. Political Fatigue and A Moral Shift?
Perhaps the most corrosive element in all of this moral fatigue.
Adding to the everyday cost of living struggles Irish residents are experiencing today, there is also very little to stay positive about when you access social and global media. Genocides, severe human rights violations, climate issues, and lifestyle comparisons may have contributed to a quiet acceptance that chaos is normal, even inevitable.
This sentiment may have also led to a quiet acceptance that housing chaos too, is normal.
When policymakers talk about homelessness, affordability, or supply issues, they speak in terms of spreadsheets, not human lives. However, stats cannot capture what it means for a child to grow up in a hotel room, or for a working adult to spend more than half their income on rent while being told the economy is booming.
In fact, a house in Ireland in 1995 was 4 times the average salary. Today it is 8 times the average salary. MyLittleHome.
This detachment has bred a form of despair in the average young Irish resident, and maybe even those in public office. And when a government stops believing in its own capacity to solve a problem, the problem becomes permanent.
So What Must the Irish Government Do to Prevent 15 More Years of Housing Failure?
I may not be a policymaker, but I’d be lying if I didn’t admit some things do look like common sense.
Ireland’s housing crisis is clearly not a mystery. It is the predictable outcome of political timidity, heavy dependency on the market, and structural neglect. However, I believe that the solutions, while challenging, are neither radical nor untested.
They simply require courage, and a government willing to redefine what it means to govern.
Below are the measures I believe that Irish policymakers should at least consider seriously if they are to prevent 15 more years of housing failure.
1. Get the 14Billion Apple Windfall out of the Exchequer – and Make Use of It Now!!
This, to me, is the most important catalyst to resolving or limiting the impact of the Irish Housing crisis. This 14 billion will not solve the housing crisis, but it can sure as hell start a chain of events that may eventually lead to the full resolution of the housing crisis.
This €14 billion Apple fund represents a once-in-a-century opportunity. It should be ring-fenced and deployed as a national reconstruction fund right now, not locked away for later NDP use.
A bold government could immediately use some of it to:
- Convert the Land Development Agency or launch a National Housing Reconstruction Agency to acquire and refurbish low-impact vacant homes, and create a social housing stock that is fully state-owned. Any further income from that is to be used in the provision of more social homes and to reduce dependence on private investment.
- Fund a state-owned modular or MMC social housing programme that makes use of offsite construction to deliver homes within months, and not years.
- Establish a public development fund/bank that is dedicated solely to the provision of affordable social services loans.
Rather than waiting for ideal conditions, the State should act as though housing is the emergency it is; because it is.
2. End Planning Paralysis with Structural Reform
Ireland’s planning system is incompatible with the urgency of its crisis.
- Consider a unified national planning authority to complement the fragmented, inconsistent local model.
- Digitise all planning applications and find out what makes Co. Meath’s planning process so efficient, and roll the system out to every county. Meath Chronicle.
Planning must serve the public interest, not paralyse it.
3. Rebuild the Construction Workforce
No target can be met without the people to build it. Ireland must accept that its construction labour crisis is structural, not temporary.
- Launch a temporary national migrant construction visa for skilled trades only.
- Consider temporary housing and tax incentives for both local and migrant workers who relocate.
- Reinvest heavily in vocational education for Irish residents, and expand apprenticeships linked directly to active housing projects.
This is not about charity or ideology; it is about capacity.
Without workers, all targets are fiction.
4. Bring Back Direct State Construction.
The private sector cannot be relied upon to solve a crisis it profits from. Simple.
Ireland needs to restore the State’s role as a builder, not merely a funder.
- Establish a form of National Housing Works Authority under the Department of Housing to directly manage land, tenders, and builds. Alternatively, it can redefine the role of the Land Development Agency as a builder.
- Enable local councils to hire builders and project managers directly rather than subcontract through AHBs.
- Use state-owned land for cost-rental and social housing, built and managed publicly, with permanent affordability.
This is how Austria, Denmark, and Finland maintain stability. They do not rely on speculative private development, but by ensuring the State always has a stake in supply.
5. Redefine How Real Living Standards are Measured.
As long as Ireland remains a tax haven, it needs to abandon GDP & GNI as the metrics by which it judges real progress.
Instead, it needs to measure:
- Median income-to-housing cost ratios,
- Share of disposable income spent on rent,
- Rates of homelessness and housing insecurity, and
- Domestic investment in productive capacity rather than tax-driven profits.
By focusing on real living standards rather than multinational balance sheets, Ireland could build a policy framework that actually reflects the lives of its residents; not the accounting of corporations.
6. Radical Transparency (Highly Unlikely)
Every policy begins with data. Ireland needs a national housing dashboard that is publicly available and updated in real time. It should detail:
- Units approved, under construction, and completed,
- Regional progress against annual targets,
- Cost per unit for both public and private builds, and
- All government funding allocations.
Lack of Clarity breeds distrust. Transparency breeds accountability.
Final Words – A Choice Between Continuity and Political Courage
The Department of Finance may be correct that Ireland’s housing crisis could last another 15 years; but that is only if Ireland continues to act the same way it has for the last 15 years – by continuing to depend on the private market to resolve the housing crisis.
The core issue is not capacity, funding, or even planning. It is the political will of the Fianna Fáil & Fine Gael coalition governments.
Ireland has the wealth, the space, the workforce potential, and the technology to solve its housing crisis within a decade. What it lacks is a government willing to put its citizens’ right to shelter above the comfort of private capital markets.
If nothing changes, the 15-year forecast will become prophecy. The housing shortage will persist through multiple coalition governments, and Ireland will enter the 2040s still debating why it cannot house its people in one of Europe’s supposedly wealthiest economies.
But if bold action is taken, if the State chooses to invest, build, reform, and reclaim control, Ireland could transform its crisis into a generation-defining success story.
