Summary of the Main Points from Irish Times Article.
The piece reports on the SCSI Residential Market Monitor, based on a survey of 200 estate agents. The headline message is – house price growth is expected to slow to about 4% in 2026, and many agents think the market is near a plateau after more than a decade of rising prices. Irish Times
- Even with slower growth, the article stresses that prices remain high and many people are still priced out, especially in commuter counties near Dublin.
Among agents surveyed:
- 84% say current prices are expensive or very expensive
- 58% think prices will plateau soon
- 23% think prices have already peaked
This is all happening even while demand still exceeds supply, which is a big reason prices keep rising at all.
- The article notes that official data showed annual price inflation at 6.6% in November, and that values were almost 24% above the Celtic Tiger peak at that point.
- The SCSI expects more small landlords to exit in 2026, partly linked to new rent rules coming in from early March 2026, including limits around selling with vacant possession.
The report includes an affordability test for a couple on a combined income of €112,000 (example: a garda and a nurse with 10 years’ service). Based on the Central Bank first-time buyer lending limit (4x income) and a 10% deposit, they could borrow €448,000.
The report compares this borrowing power to median prices in commuter counties:
- Meath and Kildare – about a €2,000 gap versus a median price of €500,000
- Wicklow – gap widens to €24,500 versus a median of €525,000
- Cork – they have about €7,000 headroom versus a median of €490,000
The takeaway here is that even “middle earners” can still face gaps in high-demand commuter areas.
This impact on commuter towns is what I would like to focus on in this article.
What Are Dublin Commuter Counties and Why do They Matter?
Dublin commuter counties include areas such as Meath, Kildare, Wicklow, Louth, and parts of the wider Mid-East and North-East. These locations became the natural alternative for buyers priced out of Dublin over the last decade.
We have seen:
- Workers commuting longer distances
- Families trading space for affordability
- Towns growing rapidly without matching infrastructure
For years, commuter counties acted as a pressure valve for Dublin’s housing market. When prices rose in the city, demand flowed outward.
That process is now reaching its limits.
Why Prices Can Plateau Even When Demand Is Still High.
At first glance, it seems a little contradictory that prices could slow down while demand still exceeds supply by a lot. In reality, this happens when a market hits an affordability ceiling.
Right now in Ireland:
- Housing supply is incredibly limited
- Mortgage lending is strictly capped (Maximum 4 times gross annual income)
- Deposits are harder to save
- Living costs have risen sharply since 2020
However, buyers still want homes. They just cannot pay more for these ridiculous new prices; even if they may be willing.
In this unique case, prices stop rising quickly not because supply has increased or homes have suddenly become affordable, but because purchasing power has run out.
Why Dublin Commuter Counties Hit the Ceiling First.
Prices in these areas rose a lot quicker due to spillover demand from Dublin.
- Most buyers in commuter counties still earn Dublin-linked wages, which outpaced local income growth. And unlike Dublin, commuter counties do not always offer higher wages
- This pseudo income growth certainly caused sellers to push house prices and rents up in these regions. These new prices quickly became detached from what ordinary households could actually afford/borrow.
And once buyers reach mortgage limits, the market stalls and prices will have to peak at some point.
A price plateau can sound like good news. But in practice, it often means the market has frozen, not corrected.
In commuter counties, this could mean that:
- Fewer homes are coming up for sale
- Houses take much longer to sell
- First-time buyers are stuck renting
Prices are thus stable, but at levels many households still cannot afford. This is not balance, but a gridlock.
Why Housing Supply Shortage Still Matters
A slowdown in price growth can distract from the deeper issue – Ireland is still not building enough homes.
Even with improved dwelling completion numbers in 2025:
- Supply still remains short of the 50-60K new homes needed each year
- There is still a shortage of homes in rural and regional areas
- There are still about 80,000 vacant and derelict homes in Ireland. (GeoDirectory)
- Homes that have received planning approval are not always built to completion
Without sustained delivery
- Prices will not fall
- Rents will continue to stay high
- And choice remains limited for potential first-time buyers
For years, buyers have always had to move further away, accept longer commutes and give up convenience just so they can afford a home.
Unfortunately, it seems that option is fading quickly as median house prices in commuter towns rival those of Dublin.
Final Words – A Plateau Is Not a Solution.
Unfortunately, I do not have great news to add to this post to help me conclude with something positive. However, to any hopeful first-time buyers reading this, kindly allow me to add some considerations/recommendations:
- Do not assume a plateau means prices will fall
Slower growth often means fewer listings and tighter choice, not bargains.
- Take up Budgeting as a Skill! And do it every day.
Factor in total monthly costs, not just house prices. Commuting, childcare, and energy costs can erase any apparent savings outside Dublin.
- Be realistic about your borrowing limits
The borrowing ceiling is structural and that is a good thing. However, you do not have to borrow at the maximum 4x limit. Aim realistically for 2 or 3 times your combined salary. Stretching further usually means higher risk, not better value.
- Consider smaller or alternative housing options seriously if you own land
Energy-efficient homes such as timber-frame homes often align better with lending rules and long-term affordability.
Until housing supply expands meaningfully in commuter counties, slower price growth will not translate into real relief. A stable market only works when people can actually enter it, and that remains Ireland’s toughest challenge today.
