Irish Property Market Forecast 2026-2030
Recently, I watched a YouTube video on the American housing market, and the whole time I kept on trying to draw parallels to the Irish housing market. In a strange way, I cannot help myself – it’s dangerously close to becoming a hollow ‘personality trait’ at this point.
In the comments section to the video, I read a comment that I have come across 100 times over. It went along the lines of ‘There is no need to buy a home now since they are too expensive, wait for the crash.‘ And in my mind, I thought – ”What crash???” . This has been an ongoing narrative since 2018. But I quickly realised that the main reason for the quick rise in housing prices today is completely different from the 2008 Global Housing Crash.
The 2008 housing market crash was mostly due to sub-par mortgages being granted throughout the years up to that point. It was only a matter of time before the market forces of demand and supply corrected this imbalance.
Buying a House in Ireland: A Step by Step Guide by a Builder/Solicitor
However, this one is different. Accounting for other factors such as a rise in materials prices, labour and energy prices due to the Ukrainian war, there is quite simply a shortage of housing supply in Ireland today relative to the increased population. And as long as supply is limited, house prices are always going to go up as long as there is demand. Sometimes, I find it incredible how this housing supply shortage is happening at the same time across most developed countries.
To add salt to injury, most banks/lenders have been strict about who they give mortgages to since the 2008 housing market crash. So it is very unlikely that the housing market will crash anytime soon. Housing prices will simply keep rising and rising. And that is a scary thought.
So out of curiosity, I decided to look into the possible trajectory of house prices in Ireland over the next 5 years. And the results might be of interest to you.
Summary of the Current Irish Property Market
According to both the CSO and Global Property Guide data above:
- House prices rose by 8.71% year-on-year in December 2024, showing continued strong growth.
- Detached homes saw a stronger increase of 9.08%.
- New dwelling completions dropped by 6.75% from 2023, totalling just 30,330 in 2024, well below the 52,000 homes needed per year till 2030!
- Rental inflation is at 7.7% as of early 2025, according to Daft.ie 2024 report.
House Price Forecast for Ireland (2024-2029)
What Each Scenario Means
- Low Estimate – Reflects a scenario where government housing delivery catches up with demand, interest rates remain stable or decrease, and planning reforms begin to reduce barriers to building. Price inflation eases to under 2.5% by 2029.
- Mid Estimate – Assumes a continuation of current trends — sluggish but improving supply, strong employment, and gradual policy reforms. This scenario represents the most likely outcome, with house prices growing at 3–5% annually.
- High Estimate – Models a more pessimistic supply scenario, where bottlenecks persist and demand continues to outweigh availability. This would mean continued price surges of up to 8–9% through 2025 and sustained pressure through 2029.
Despite easing inflation and falling interest rates, the persistent housing undersupply keeps upward pressure on prices.
Factors Driving These Predictions
- Supply-Demand Imbalance – Ireland continues to fall short of the 50,000 homes needed annually. While a record 60,000 commencements were logged in 2024, only 33,000 were completed.
- Interest Rates – Lower interest rates in 2025 are expected to improve affordability, but could also reignite demand; further fuelling price growth unless supply meets pace.
- Government Policy – The Planning and Development Act 2024, development levy waivers, and zoning reforms may help in the mid to long term, but many remain delayed or under-implemented.
- Overvaluation Risk – The ESRI and other bodies warn that house prices may be overvalued by 8–10%, making the market vulnerable to economic shocks.
- Economic Outlook – A growing population, resilient employment, and increasing wage levels all point to strong underlying demand.
Why a Property/Housing Crash is Unlikely.
- Banks are cautious. Post-2008, stricter mortgage lending criteria means less mortgages are given to those who are unlikely to repay.
- No oversupply. We’re simply building too little, compared to current demand.
- Mortgage arrears are far lower than pre-2008 figures.
Even though the ESRI warns that while prices might be overvalued by 10%, any price drops might not make a big difference in affordability. The chances of a full-blown crash like 2008 are slim.
And if some type of crash does happen, it will most likely be due to new/unprecedented factors not seen before in modern housing history.
Factors Supporting Price Growth
1. Strong Demand Drivers
- Ireland’s population continues to grow.
- Low unemployment and wage increases support homebuyer confidence.
- ECB interest rate cuts are expected to ease mortgage conditions further.
2. Supply Lagging Behind
- Despite a record 60,000+ housing starts in 2024, completions lag significantly.
- Structural challenges in planning, land access, and utilities hamper delivery.
3. Investor Hesitancy Due to Policy Uncertainty
- Long planning delays and legal obstacles are keeping private developers on edge.
- Utility connection delays, as highlighted by Roundtower Capital, are slowing builds even after planning approval.
4. Worsening Affordability
- Households now spend an average of 33% of their disposable income on mortgage repayments, nearing Celtic Tiger levels.
- First-time buyers face major barriers without aggressive State intervention.
Irish Recent Rental Market Insights
Rental growth shows no sign of slowing, especially outside Dublin, due to stagnant supply.
What Needs to Happen
1. Support Non-Standard Housing
- Modular homes can be built faster and at lower cost.
- The government can allocate land, offer VAT relief, and simplify planning for these alternative builds.
2. Temporal Reform the Planning System
- Getting planning approval in Ireland for standard housing can be notoriously difficult, so slightly easing application processes and appeals could help increase supply in the short term.
- Increase transparency across councils to reduce inconsistent approvals.
3. Increase Competition in Mortgage Market
- Encourage fixed-rate mortgage competition to ease buyer confidence. Homeowners on variable-rate mortgages are being hit with ridiculously high monthly payments globally over the last few years.
Final Thoughts
There’s no quick fix.
Ireland’s housing challenges are deeply embedded and years in the making. But what’s clear from all indicators is this – waiting for a crash is an unwise bet. And while prices may cool slightly, the trajectory is still upward.
If you’re hoping to buy in the next few years, staying informed and preparing smartly is your best shot at getting on the ladder before it’s out of reach.
📚 Sources
- DNG Market Review and Outlook 2024
- ESRI Economic Commentary, Dec 2024
- Global Property Guide: Ireland Housing Market Analysis 2025
- Team Lorraine Real Estate Market Forecast 2025
- When Will the Housing Market Crash? Economists Don’t Foresee It in 2025
- Utility Bottlenecks and Planning Paralysis: Critical Housing Challenges in New Government’s First 100 Days
