According to the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI), Ireland just recorded the highest number of first-time buyer (FTB) mortgages since 2007. In the 12 months to September 2025, 27,330 FTB loans were taken, making up almost 60% of all mortgages and totalling €14.1 billion. Irish Times.
On the surface, this sounds like a success story; thousands finally getting on the property ladder. But in the middle of a housing crisis, when supply is low and affordability is low, this record raises an uncomfortable question in my opinion – are more people actually winning, or are more people simply being screwed further?
What the Numbers Say.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| FTB mortgages (12 months to Sep 2025) | 27,330 | Highest since 2007 |
| Share of all mortgages | 59.7% | Majority of all loans |
| Total value | €14.1 billion | Driven by rising house prices |
| Median House price (Q3 2025) | ~€375,000 | Source: CSO |
| Average FTB deposit | €42,000 – €50,000 | Often state-assisted |
Most buyers relied on schemes like the Help-to-Buy (HTB) and First Home Scheme (FHS).
Why This Record FTB Mortgage ‘Record’ Is Technically True.
1. REAL BANK DATA
The figures above come from the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland (BPFI) – the main body that represents Ireland’s banks. Mortgage drawdown numbers are based on actual bank transactions, not estimates, so the numbers themselves (27,330 first-time buyer mortgages, worth €14.1bn) are most likely factual and verifiable.
At this moment, I have no real reason to distrust these numbers besides the fact that I’m naturally skeptical.
2. GOV’T SCHEMES ARE WORKING – On Paper
The Help-to-Buy (HTB), First Home Scheme, and Local Authority loans have made it easier for people to borrow to buy a house. Easier doesn’t mean that homes are cheaper; it just means that more people are barely able to buy with help from the state.
3. CULTURAL MOVE TOWARDS SMALLER HOMES & SHARED OWNERSHIP
I have to consider the fact that a large number of first-time buyers can only afford apartments, duplexes, or part-share homes through government schemes; not typical traditional 3-bed semis. My opinions on this could fill a textbook, but that’s not what this post is about.
Smaller types of homes help to inflate buyer count, even though total housing output, quality or ownership security hasn’t improved much.
4. DELAYED DEMAND POST-COVID.
This is just a hunch but it feels to me like it does have merit.
Many potential buyers were probably stuck waiting during 2020–2022 (slow construction, Russian-Ukraine war uncertainty, general post-covid cynicism etc). Once they felt more confident in the general markets from 2023, they then rushed to buy real estate – regardless of higher prices.
Also, it is highly unlikely that the number of first-time buyers will increase by this time next year, especially since fewer homes are likely to be built by the end of 2025 compared to 2024.
Why This Record FTB Mortgage ‘Record’, if True Is Bad News.
1. HIGH NUMBERS ≠ HEALTHY MARKET
In 2007, lending standards were loose and house prices inflated. Where did that end? Collapse.
Today’s “record” reminds me of 2007 in that it likely reflects inflated prices and government-supported borrowing, not real affordability or healthy housing supply.
I still cannot see a 2008-style housing crash happening (due to very low supply), but I do see the gap in general inequality widening.
2. STATE-BACKED BUYING WITHOUT INCREASED SUPPLY KEEPS HOUSE PRICES HIGH.
Though well-intended, schemes like the Help to Buy add buying power without adding housing supply. People who would not have been able to buy a home this soon can now buy a home. This increase in demand also helps to keep prices high, especially as housing supply figures are not rising with the same level of enthusiasm.
Basically, taxpayers are indirectly fuelling further inflation.
3. WE ARE ‘BUYING’ SMALLER HOMES & OWING FOR LONGER.
The “typical first home” is now an apartment or duplex that is more expensive than it’s worth, miles from work, and comes with a 30- to 35-year mortgage trap. This state of affairs bothers me on a moral level, because it takes advantage of the average person trying to get by.
More loans does not mean more stability. It just means we’re in debt for much longer.
5. NOT ALL BUYERS MAY BE TRUE FIRST TiME BUYERS
Some “first-time buyers” could be returning emigrants or joint-income professionals for example. They will show up in reports as first time buyers to boost stats.
If so, then this will not help to solve the housing squeeze for the average renter or single-income worker – since the report is not accurate, but its impact on rising house prices remains.
This apparent record says less about housing health and more about ‘how many bandages it now takes to prevent further blood loss.’
Many mortgage advisors note that even with state support, most buyers are borrowing to their limit. Average mortgage terms are getting longer, incomes are shorter, and savings are shrinking. In parallel, renters (particularly those on average wages) remain locked out entirely.
Final Thoughts
When you take away the Irish Times headline, the record reflects a deeper paradox – Ireland is producing more first-time buyers than ever before, but it’s also creating more financial strain per buyer. Whether this is by necessity or by design is another discussion entirely.
However, this balance is not sustainable. Unless the focus shifts from pushing demand to freeing supply, this “record” will age like the one from 2007 – milk.
